Natural gas use drives the increase
The institute released its Early Estimate of National Emissions on October 8. The roughly 1% increase puts Canada's emissions at a level equivalent to those from 161 million gasoline-powered passenger vehicles driven for a year, according to The Canadian Press.
Emissions tied to natural gas use in buildings climbed 6%, while those from electricity generation increased 5%. Meanwhile, non-emitting sources supplied 80% of Canada's electricity, down from 84% in 2020, even as hydroelectric, wind and solar generation continued to grow.
The findings do not show how much Saskatchewan contributed to the national increase. Agriculture, energy production and electricity infrastructure are important parts of the province's economy, but the release does not provide a provincial breakdown of the rise.
Oil and gas emissions edge down as production grows
Oil and gas remained Canada's largest source of emissions, though the sector's total changed little in 2025. The Canadian Press reported that the institute estimated a 0.2% decline from 2024. That came despite record crude oil production: Statistics Canada reported in June 2026 that output in 2025 was about 4% higher than a year earlier.
The sector's overall decline masked an increase in oilsands emissions of 844,000 tonnes. Emissions from conventional oil and gas extraction and downstream activities fell by 1.3 million tonnes, more than offsetting the increase from upstream producers, according to the report.
Seton Stiebert, a senior fellow at the institute, attributed much of the improvement to lower fugitive methane emissions and greater efficiency per unit produced, The Canadian Press reported.
Emissions remain far above the 2030 goal
Canada's 2030 commitment calls for emissions to be 40% to 45% below their 2005 level. The institute's latest estimate puts the reduction since 2005 at just 9.5%.
Rick Smith, the institute's president, said: "The increase in Canada's 2025 emissions is yet another signal that the country must accelerate action to meet the Carney government's own commitments."
The institute is urging more investment in clean electricity, better energy efficiency and greater use of electricity in buildings, transportation and industry. Its recommendations include fulfilling the government's commitment to double electricity generation capacity by 2050, alongside doubling electrification and energy efficiency. It also calls for measures equivalent to reaching a 75% electric vehicle adoption rate by 2035.
Ross Linden-Fraser, acting director of the institute's 440 Megatonnes project, said: "Canada remains off track to meet its climate goals, but the solution is no mystery: clean electrification is the linchpin of climate progress."
Linden-Fraser also warned that the Carney government might not apply the clean electricity regulations or might eliminate them. He told The Canadian Press that progress in reducing electricity-sector emissions was slowing and could be reversing, and warned that removing the regulations could undo gains.
Federal inventory results expected in April
The institute's figures are preliminary, not the final federal emissions inventory. The Canadian Press reported that the institute receives three-quarters of its funding from the federal government.
Ottawa's official estimates for 2025 are expected in April 2027, according to The Canadian Press.
