Soy Fund Slips 0.51% as Wheat Fund Falls 0.74%
Grain-tracking funds posted mixed results on Tuesday, October 13, with soybeans extending their losing streak to a second consecutive session. The SOYB soybean fund declined 0.51% to close at US$27.33, while the WEAT wheat fund fell 0.74% to US$24.28. The CORN fund bucked the trend with a modest 0.11% gain to US$18.48, and the broad DBA agriculture fund remained nearly flat at US$28.43.
The session unfolded without a scheduled USDA crop report, as the agency's major October Crop Production report and WASDE had been released four days earlier on Friday, October 9. Trading volumes remained subdued as market participants awaited fresh catalysts.
Brazil's Dominant Market Position
The price movements carry significant implications for South American farmers, particularly in Brazil, which has cemented its position as the world's largest soybean exporter. Brazil controlled 54% of global soybean export market share in 2024, while the United States accounted for 26.9% of global production in the 2025-26 marketing year.
China has become the linchpin of this trade dynamic, accounting for 71% of Brazil's soybean exports in the first seven months of 2026. Brazil now supplies 73.6% of China's total soybean imports, up from 71% in 2024. This concentration reflects structural trade advantages, including China's 13% total import duty on US-origin soybeans compared with just 3% on Brazilian cargoes.
Record Harvests Shape Market Fundamentals
Brazil's 2025-26 soybean harvest is projected at a record 177-179 million metric tons, with export volumes forecast at 112-116 million metric tons. These figures represent new highs for both production and exports, underpinning the country's export dominance.
Meanwhile, the 2026-27 planting season in Brazil's southern hemisphere has begun, with planting reaching 7.3% as of early October. This pace trails the 9.0% progress recorded at the same point last year, making weather conditions a critical factor for the developing crop.
Argentina's Soybean Meal Exports
Argentina maintains its status as the world's largest soybean meal exporter, with combined soybean meal exports from Argentina, Brazil and the United States reaching a record 73 million tons in 2025-26, up from 68.9 million tons a year earlier. Argentine soybean production for 2026-27 is forecast at a record 52.5 million tonnes, representing an 8% increase over earlier estimates.
Market Outlook
The SOYB fund has now declined from US$27.53 on Friday to US$27.33, a cumulative loss of 0.73% over two sessions. A third consecutive decline would push the fund below the US$27.30 threshold.
The US dollar index fell 0.36% to 102.2 on Tuesday, a move that typically supports US agricultural exports by making them more competitive internationally. However, grain funds did not respond to the currency shift in the absence of other catalysts.
Traders will focus on upcoming USDA reports and southern hemisphere weather patterns as planting progresses. Chinese purchase announcements remain the primary catalyst for soybean price movements, given China's outsized role in global demand. The next major data points will include harvest progress updates from Brazil and weather forecasts for critical growing regions.
