The projected shift and how it is measured
Lagos leads the region under the report's population estimates, but its projected growth of more than 25% from 12.8 million would not keep it ahead of Luanda. By 2050, the Angolan capital's population is expected to reach 20.3 million, about 4.1 million more than Lagos. The Nigerian city would still be a major urban and economic center.
The forecasts appear in "Sub-Saharan Africa's Urban Awakening: Catalyzing Economic Growth and Job Creation," released by the World Bank Group on October 29, 2026. Across the region, the report anticipates about 748 million additional urban residents between 2025 and 2050, taking the total to roughly 1.7 billion across cities, towns and peri-urban areas.
Those figures depend on a broader, consistent definition of urban areas. As IntelliNews explains, the report uses the UN-endorsed "degree of urbanisation" method to classify cities, peripheries and towns across national borders. This approach generally includes more residents than national definitions do.
Using that method, the report estimates the region's urban population at 913 million in 2025. By comparison, the World Bank's standard series, based on national definitions, recorded about 542 million in 2023. The figures differ in both their reference year and their method.
Growth will reshape the city rankings
Luanda and Lagos are among five cities projected to exceed 10 million residents, the threshold for a megacity, by 2050. Moneyweb, citing Bloomberg, reports that Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania's Dar es Salaam and Ethiopia's Addis Ababa are also expected to pass that mark.
Several other cities face substantial increases. Bamako, Mali, is forecast to grow 80%, from 4.2 million residents in 2025 to 7.6 million in 2050. Mogadishu, Somalia, is projected to reach 7.2 million after growth of 64%. Nigeria's Onitsha is expected to expand from 5.6 million in 2025 to 8.7 million, while Kano could grow 31% yet fall outside the region's 15 largest cities.
Population gains would not prevent South African cities from losing ground in the rankings either. Johannesburg is projected to have 8.9 million residents in 2050, up from 7.1 million in 2025, but move from fifth to eighth place. Cape Town, ranked 15th with about 4.5 million people, is expected to leave the ranking of the region's largest cities.
Planning for housing, services and expansion
The growth will also change cities' physical footprint. The report estimates that Sub-Saharan Africa's urban land area could increase 90% by 2050, much of it on rapidly expanding outskirts. Nearly half of the urban space needed by mid-century has not yet been built.
That leaves room to reserve sites for roads and public services before development makes infrastructure harder and more expensive to provide. The World Bank urges governments to invest in affordable housing, transportation and infrastructure, improve land administration and urban planning, and make regulations more conducive to private investment.
In Lagos alone, the projected addition of 3.4 million residents means greater demand for homes, transit, roads, water and sanitation. Housing construction must be linked to employment centers, transportation networks and essential services. Uncoordinated expansion could worsen overcrowding, informal settlement growth, congestion and housing costs.
The report's priorities could offer developers opportunities in affordable homes, serviced land, projects connected to infrastructure and emerging urban growth corridors. But infrastructure shortages already affect businesses across the region: 71% of firms report difficulties with power outages, one-quarter lack water supplies, and about one-quarter identify transportation as a major or very severe business constraint, according to Moneyweb's account of the report.
Connecting urban growth to employment
The World Bank cautions against treating urban population growth as a guarantee of higher productivity, stronger economies or better living standards. The region needs approximately 15 million new jobs each year to match workforce growth. Meanwhile, 56% of workers remain in informal employment, a category that includes unpaid informal work and self-employment undertaken for survival.
Access to transportation is one obstacle to connecting people with work. Only 32% of people in Sub-Saharan Africa live within walking distance of public transit. Urban workers in the region also spend an average of 42% more on transportation than city residents elsewhere.
Dar es Salaam illustrates the burden. Low-income workers there typically face bus commutes of more than 90 minutes, according to Iimi's 2025 research cited in the report and reported by The Citizen. Transportation takes an average of 16% of women's monthly incomes and 13% of men's.
Reliable infrastructure, accessible transportation, effective land-use planning and stronger urban institutions will help determine whether expanding cities can attract businesses and generate employment. The report also identifies more than 15,000 towns across the region as potential locations for investment and jobs, rather than focusing only on the largest cities.
Municipal financing and Lagos's ambitions
To help cities address these needs, the World Bank recommends giving municipalities greater authority over decisions, allowing them to collect more of their own tax revenue and enabling direct borrowing. Outside South Africa, the report says, Addis Ababa is virtually the only city in Sub-Saharan Africa to have used contractual debt to finance substantial foundational infrastructure.
Lagos state's plan for an economy worth nearly $1 trillion by 2052 will require housing and infrastructure capable of supporting more residents and a more productive workforce. Its projected population increase makes housing delivery, mobility and job creation central to that ambition.
