Voters shift toward Democrats on the economy
The governing party often loses ground in midterms as voters pass judgment on the president. This time, The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal reported on November 4, frustration with grocery bills and gasoline prices helped drive the Democratic victory. The economic dissatisfaction that benefited Trump in 2024 had turned against his party.
A Washington Post-NORC survey of more than 90,000 voters put Trump's job approval rating at 39%. Democrats held a 15-percentage-point advantage among voters who identified the economy and jobs as major concerns. Two years earlier, voters prioritizing those issues had favored Trump by more than 20 points.
The NBC News Exit Poll likewise found that voters trusted Democrats more than Republicans to handle the economy, reversing the result from 2024. Asked about the economic system, 69% said it favors the wealthy; 31% considered it generally fair.
Household expenses figured prominently in a separate voter survey by the Associated Press and major U.S. broadcasters. In that survey, 89% called the cost of living an important consideration in their vote, while roughly two-thirds said Trump's policies had made prices higher.
NBC News cited Bureau of Labor Statistics figures showing that annual inflation reached 3.7% in September 2026. It also reported that diesel costs had risen by more than 50% during the year as the Iran war restricted oil supplies.
Trump had rejected the Democrats' emphasis on household costs. Speaking at an October 2 rally in Texas, he described "affordability" as a "phony word" invented by Democrats and blamed the Biden administration for inflation during his own presidency.
War and immigration bring further backlash
The unresolved war with Iran, now more than nine months long, also weighed on Republicans and fractured support from voters who had backed the Trump-Vance ticket in 2024. Vice President J.D. Vance wrote on X, "The reason we lost is because of the war," saying many of those voters had moved to the Democrats.
Trump accepted that the war had contributed to the defeat but defended his decision to launch it. He said he would make the same decision again.
The Washington Post found a substantial Democratic advantage among voters in competitive House districts who ranked the Iran war among their three leading issues: 65% supported Democrats and 33% supported Republicans. In a Gallup poll conducted shortly before the election, 77% of registered voters described the Iran issue as an important consideration in their vote.
Mass deportations and forced detentions under the administration's hardline immigration crackdown also drew a backlash from Latino voters. More than six in ten Latino participants in the Post's House election survey supported Democrats. An Associated Press survey put Latino support for the party at about 60%.
A shared message across Democratic factions
Democrats made household costs a point of agreement between their progressive and moderate wings. According to The Wall Street Journal, candidates across the party adopted affordability as a common campaign theme, arguing that Trump's policies were straining family budgets rather than centering cultural and identity debates.
Former President Barack Obama reinforced that effort through late-campaign appearances and advertising. His support helped connect the party's factions, including when he backed progressive Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed's proposals for a higher minimum wage and universal health coverage.
El-Sayed won Michigan's open Senate seat and is set to become the first Muslim U.S. senator. His platform included Medicare for All, eliminating the immigration enforcement agency ICE and raising taxes on billionaires.
During the campaign, Trump called El-Sayed a "jihadist" and suggested he would need to pass through a metal detector before entering the Senate. ITV News reported that the remarks drew condemnation as Islamophobic.
The Wall Street Journal cautioned against treating the result as unqualified support for Democratic proposals, writing that "the victory was historic, but it was closer to a rejection of President Trump than an endorsement of the Democrats' policy agenda."
Congressional control and the next speaker
NBC News projected Democratic majorities in both the House and Senate, giving the party full control of Congress. The gains included Texas, where Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton in the Senate race by more than 12 percentage points, according to NBC News.
House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries is expected to become speaker when the new Congress convenes in January 2027, NBC News reported. He would be the first non-white speaker in U.S. history.
