Brazil Diesel Imports: Delayed Seasonal Peak, US Overtakes Russia
Brazil's seaborne diesel imports have moved counter-seasonally over the past month and currently sit below historical ranges, even as the agricultural planting season typically drives peak demand from September onward, according to Vortexa analytics. An uptick remains expected as increased diesel loadings head toward Brazilian ports, suggesting the seasonal peak will arrive delayed until at least late October.
Domestic production now supplies two-thirds of Brazil's diesel demand, with imports covering the remaining third. Petrobras significantly raised diesel output this year after global disruptions sharply tightened worldwide diesel supply. The 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, which began in late February and resulted in closure of the strait to vessels bound for United States, Israeli and allied ports, triggered what the International Energy Agency characterized as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. About 25 percent of the world's seaborne oil trade and 20 percent of liquefied natural gas passed through the strait before the conflict.
Russian refining capacity also came under sustained pressure. Ukrainian drone strikes hit Russian refineries on average once every three days during the first eight months of 2026, according to the International Energy Agency. By late August, only five major Russian refineries remained untouched by Ukrainian drones. Russia additionally banned diesel exports by producers until October 31, further constraining global supply.
The combined impact of these disruptions was substantial. Gulf countries' net diesel and gasoil exports averaged about 390,000 barrels per day in August 2026, just over one-quarter of pre-war levels, according to the IEA's September assessment. Combined net exports from the Gulf and Russia fell 1.6 million barrels per day below February 2026 levels.
Record refinery utilization drives domestic output
Petrobras has not yet published average utilization rates for the third quarter, but second-quarter rates reached a record 101 percent as domestic refiners increased refined product output. March 2026 saw utilization hit 97.4 percent, the highest rate since December 2014, with individual refineries operating at 100, 102 and 103 percent of designed capacity. Monthly diesel production at Petrobras refineries has climbed by as much as 20 percent since the start of the year, with August data showing output nearly 10 percent above the five-year seasonal average.
Maintenance starting October 5 at the Petrobras REPAR refinery, with capacity of about 200,000 barrels per day, is expected to slow production somewhat. The shutdown involves an investment of 800 million reais and is scheduled to run through the second half of November, with approximately 6,000 workers at peak. The maintenance targets the Fluid Catalytic Cracking unit and diesel and gasoline hydrotreating units.
US overtakes Russia as leading foreign supplier
The supplier mix for the one-third of Brazilian diesel demand met by seaborne imports has shifted markedly this year. Vortexa data shows Russia was historically the dominant foreign supplier to Brazil, with consistent flows maintained until recently despite Western sanctions on Russian oil. The United States has now emerged as the primary source.
Even with strong flows from the United States, Brazil's seaborne diesel imports are averaging about 200,000 barrels per day, well below the five-year seasonal average of roughly 350,000 barrels per day. A surge of imports recorded in August may have represented early buying for seasonal agricultural demand, though volumes at the time aligned with historical ranges and only slightly exceeded the seasonal average.
Late October peak anticipated
Rather than early buying, Brazil appears more likely to soon see the expected rise in imports, as global diesel loadings pointed toward Brazil peaked in the first week of October at about 330,000 barrels per day, surpassing the seasonal average. The United States remained Brazil's primary diesel supplier during that period, loading eight medium-range vessels and one long-range vessel totaling about 2.8 million barrels in the first week of October.
With a medium-range voyage from the US Gulf Coast to Southeast Brazil taking approximately 18 days, an influx of diesel is expected to discharge by the end of the month, a period that also saw elevated arrivals in 2025.
Diesel imports into Brazil carry particular importance in the final quarter as agricultural demand rises with the planting season for key crops. Brazil is projected to harvest a record soybean crop of 180.1 million tons in the 2026/27 season, representing a 0.98 percent increase compared to the previous cycle, with soybean area expected to grow 1.2 percent to reach 49.1 million hectares. The bulk of soybeans are typically planted between mid-September and the end of November depending on weather conditions.
In the week ending October 11, about 15 percent of the country's soybean crop had been planted, only slightly above the 11 percent recorded in the same period in 2025, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Development. By the time seaborne diesel imports are expected to peak in late October, roughly half of the soybean crop should still need planting based on last year's trend, keeping diesel demand elevated through November.
